The following article by Virginia Galt, published in the Globe and Mail, details the situtation that the Bank of Canada faces. The Canadian dollar keeps rising as the price of comodities increases and the Canadian economy continues to leave many of its problems behind. As the dollar rises it puts pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates to prevent inflation.
Will Canadian interest rates go up next week? Will the Bank of Canada stick to its previous position that they would leave rates alone until middle of 2010? As a real estate professional this is an issue that I speak about daily with my clients.
Here is the full text of the article.
The Bank of Canada
is “in a bit of a box” as it heads into next week's policy meeting, with the generally surging Canadian dollar (0.96-0.002-0.20%) threatening to dampen the fledgling recovery, economists and currency strategists said Thursday.
“The runaway Canadian dollar
,” which actually closed down 0.81 of a penny at 96.67 cents (U.S.) Thursday, will be high on the agenda when Bank of Canada governors meet on Tuesday, Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist of BMO Nesbitt Burns, said in an interview.
The markets will also be watching closely for any nuances on the central bank's interest rate
policy. The Bank of Canada has pledged to hold the line on its benchmark interest rate of 0.25 per cent until well into next year.
Despite this commitment, speculation that the Bank of Canada might follow the lead of the Reserve Bank of Australia and raise its rates sooner has helped propel the Canadian dollar towards parity with the United States currency.
Few Canadian economists believe the central bank will intervene directly in foreign exchange markets. But much stronger language is expected, following Prime Minister Stephen Harper's statement earlier this week that “too rapid a rise in the dollar is a risk to our recovery.”
The Canadian dollar has gained 5 per cent against the U.S. currency since the beginning of October.
The Bank of Canada is expected to dampen the speculation by reiterating its commitment to stay the course on interest rates
– a course that has been successful in stimulating the economy.
“We have lots of evidence that the extreme lows in rates are working their magic in the interest-sensitive sectors, most notably housing,” Mr. Porter said after the Canadian Real Estate Association reported record Canadian home sales in the third quarter of this year.
What do economists expect when the Bank of Canada holds its policy meeting Tuesday, followed by its quarterly monetary policy report Thursday?
‘They don't have to do anything just yet'
“They are in a bit of a tough spot, but they don't have to do anything yet,” Mr. Porter said.
Expect stronger language about the threat posed by the strong Canadian dollar – that's “going to move up their worry list.”
But don't expect any change in interest rate policy at this point.
“They don't even have to make any signals one way or another on their conditional commitment to keep interest rates flat until the middle of next year,” Mr. Porter said.
“They'll have another crack at it in December and then again early next year. I don't think there are going to be any significant changes, Mr. Porter said.
Here's the bank's quandary: “While the hot housing market cries out for rate hikes, the runaway loonie screams ‘No!',” Mr. Porter said in a research note.
‘A ratcheting up of the rhetoric would deflate the loonie'
It will not be enough for the Bank of Canada to merely reiterate its earlier warnings about the threat to growth posed by the strong dollar, which is weighing on Canadian exports, Scotia Capital currency strategists said in a research note Thursday.
“However, a ratcheting up of the rhetoric would deflate the loonie, with the most serious impact coming from any suggestion by the Bank of Canada that Canadian dollar strength has become such a constraint that the bank changes its conditional commitment to hold the current policy rate until the second quarter of 2010, and instead extends the conditional period of ultra-accommodative policy,” Scotia Capital currency strategists Camilla Sutton and Sacha Tihanyi said in a research report.
“This would certainly impact rate expectations.”
‘We don't see them moving to quantitative easing'
Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Grant Bishop noted that Canada's hot real estate market could force the Bank of Canada to move on interest rates sooner than planned if the market does not cool on its own in response to higher mortgage rates.
However, as it now stands, he does not expect the central bank to move on rates until the fourth quarter of next year to allow the economy to build on its momentum as it emerges from the recession.
“A lot of people have speculated on a move to quantitative easing, which we think is a very far outside possibility,” Mr. Bishop said. Quantitative easing is a rarely used policy instrument that dilutes the value of a currency by increasing money supply.
There would be risks associated with raising rates earlier than planned, Mr. Bishop added.
“Higher interest rates would mean a higher dollar because they attract financial flows based on the prospective returns.”
The central bank could dampen Canadian dollar speculation just by reiterating its current interest-rate policy stance, he said.
Volatility of the currency is of greater concern than the level of the loonie
New York-based investment adviser Dennis Gartman, author of the widely-followed Gartman Letter, noted that Prime Minister Stephen Harper “did not say that a continued rise would be detrimental, but that too rapid a rise would be ... In other words, a quiet, steady, fundamentally warranted, slowly inexorable rise would not be [detrimental].”
In a question-and-answer session after a speech in Vancouver Tuesday, Mr. Harper said that some of the dollar's recent rise is supported by economic fundamentals.
“We know that Canada's economy is relatively stronger than certainly virtually any other … industrialized economy – certainly stronger than all of the G7 economies and stronger than most of the developed world,” Mr. Harper said at that time.
“And obviously some of these factors will have something to do with the rise of the dollar. That said, the governor of the Bank of Canada has been clear that too rapid a rise in the dollar is a risk to our recovery.”